Saturday, July 8, 2023

UFC 290 Predictions - Updated with Post-Fight Thoughts

Let's hop right into my predictions for the main card.

Dan Hooker vs Jalin Turner

Full disclosure, I've only ever seen Jalin Turner lose a decision against Mateusz Gamrot. But I have indeed seen Dan Hooker get his ass beat multiple times (AND I've seen him beat ass as well). Dan Hooker has the experience edge. I'm leaning towards Dan by stoppage or Unanimous decision.

Post-Fight reflection: Yeah, I was on the money with this one. Turner is a former champion and is definitely a damn good lightweight, but Dan Hooker isn't just any other lightweight. 


Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Moreno

That flyweight belt isn't real since Henry Cejudo vacated it. Further, this division has some of the fastest paced, yet boring and inconsequential fights. And that's coming from someone who fell in love with Mma off watching Demetrius Johnson tear through ONE FC.

I don't care but I hope Pantoja wins. We all know he won't.

Post-Fight reflection: Well, I guess I was wrong. I really dislike the UFC's flyweight division and the fact that only four dudes have ran through everyone else at that weight, with two of them leaving the division in their primes. Flyweight fights are always fast as hell on the feet and chaotic on the ground. There just doesn't seem to be enough people in the UFC's flyweight division for that to shine. No one with that 125 belt is the real champion until Demetrius Johnson retires and Cejudo drops back down and loses. 

Yair Rodriguez vs. Alexander Volkanowski
 
Yair is another one of those motherfuckers that fights like an Octopus. Volk is a short wrestler who has to close the distance to hit someone. He's not an unsolvable puzzle. And Yair throws strikes I've never seen before. He knocked out Zombie with a fucking weird ass upwards elbow. 


I can definitely see him head kicking Volk as he shoots for a takedown or tries to run out of range. 

However, Volk is heavy. And when I was watching tape I saw Frankie Edgar beat the flying goddamn fuck out of Yair by laying on him and hitting him. 

I'm leaning towards either a second round KO for Yair or a five-round beating that leads to a unanimous decision for Volk. 

Whatever happens, I won't watch another featherweight fight until Topuria gets a title shot.

Post-Fight reflection: I don't know. Volk is a tiny grappler who has to come down the center line to close the distance. A well-placed headkick or uppercut down the middle should at least drop him. Yet, Yair kept throwing side headkicks and switch kicks and kicks everywhere but down the centerline. And Volk checked all of them. Now, I'm no high-level mixed martial artist or Mma coach but it sounded like Yair's corner were telling him to do the same thing. But I'm pretty sure the fight ending sequence was initiated by Volk catching a kick up the middle, so what do I know? 

Editors Note: It was a leg-kick not a high-kick. 

Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis 

Whittaker is indeed old. However, I haven't seen anything to lead me to believe that Dricus is some next level middleweight. And I've watched all of his fights since last year. Dricus is a former champion in a different promotion and he's been fighting professionally for a deceptively long time so I'll give him that edge. He's probably had a game plan for Whitaker for a very long time. 

But this is Robert Whittaker. Can Dricus execute? I doubt it. 

Split Decision for Dricus. 

Post-Fight reflection: I'm not surprised. I didn't think he'd TKO Robert in the second round, but I knew anyone saying Dricus would get finished immediately was dead-ass wrong. I definitely thought it would be a drawn out stand-up war and Dricus would win on points. I think a lot of people were discounting that Robert has been fighting for ten years, and never even defended his belt. Whereas Dricus has been fighting for the same amount of time and did defend his belt (albeit in another promotion). He never was going to get walked down or not put up a fight. He said post-fight that he had indeed been watching Whittaker for years, and that he had been training with karate practitioners during camp. 

What I'm saying is that I was 10,000% right to assume that Dricus already had a game plan for taking out Whittaker. And goddamit, he executed.

Now I can say that he is next-level.